According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates while inflation rebounds, a setup they state the stock market will like, source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Aug 23, 2025. According to The Kobeissi Letter, wage growth is likely to lag inflation and the wealth gap could widen, signaling pressure on real consumer incomes, source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Aug 23, 2025. For traders, looser policy into rising inflation can boost risk assets, and crypto often trades as high beta to equities with documented periods of positive BTC–Nasdaq correlation in 2020–2022, source: Kaiko Research correlation studies 2022–2023 and Coin Metrics State of the Network. Key market checks for positioning include DXY, the US 2-year yield, and real yields, where a softer dollar and lower front-end yields have coincided with stronger BTC and ETH in prior risk-on phases, source: Federal Reserve H.15 data and Kaiko Research.

According to Cas Abbé, Bitcoin (BTC) remains decoupled from traditional equities, indicating that its price movements are currently driven by crypto-native liquidity rather than broader macroeconomic flows. This environment is considered optimal for the onset of an altseason, as macroeconomic volatility is not restricting the upside for alternative cryptocurrencies at this time. This decoupling suggests that traders can focus on crypto-specific signals and liquidity trends rather than external economic factors when making trading decisions (source: Cas Abbé).